Coinbase Prediction Market Revenue 2026 forecasts just got a major boost. On October 26, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani published a bullish new note. He expects event contracts to become a core business for both Coinbase and Robinhood. In fact, he thinks they could rival crypto trading itself.
Coinbase Prediction Market Revenue 2026: The Bernstein Numbers
Coinbase is the largest crypto exchange based in the United States. Chhugani expects about $600 million from its event contracts and derivatives in 2026. Furthermore, he sees that figure topping $2 billion by 2028. That would more than triple the business in just two years.
Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with one of the largest prediction market operators. It also sells perpetual futures, often called perps. Meanwhile, crypto price contracts rank among the fastest-growing non-sports segments in prediction markets.
Robinhood tells a similar story. Chhugani forecasts $650 million in event contract revenue for Robinhood in 2026. He expects that number to more than double by 2028, reaching $1.7 billion. In contrast, he projects $1.6 billion from crypto trading that year. As a result, prediction markets could pass crypto as a revenue source.
That shift already happened once. In the second quarter, Robinhood earned more from prediction markets than from crypto for the first time. Additionally, Chhugani raised his Robinhood revenue estimates by 3% to 4% for 2026 through 2028. He also projects a 21% quarter-over-quarter jump in event contract volume.
Why It Matters For Players
Brokerages do not chase prediction markets for fees alone. Instead, they use them to win new customers. A trader who joins for a simple yes or no contract often moves into options or futures later. Therefore, these apps want users to stay and trade more products.
That model matters for crypto gamblers. Event contracts on Bitcoin prices feel a lot like short-term bets. However, they sit under federal commodity rules rather than state gambling laws. Consequently, players get fewer of the safer-play tools that licensed casinos must offer.
Two big operators still dominate the US prediction market space. Still, brokerages like Coinbase and Robinhood keep gaining share. Competition could bring better pricing and promos for traders.
Casino Bonus Streak Perspective
We see prediction markets and crypto casinos moving closer together. Both appeal to fast-moving players who like quick results. Nevertheless, a trading app and a casino serve different goals. Know which product you are using before you deposit. Our list of the best casino bonuses covers established casino offers. Our guide to fast payout casinos also helps crypto players find quick withdrawals.
Above all, set a budget for event contracts just as you would for slots. Short-term crypto contracts can drain a balance quickly.
What Players Should Watch Next
First, watch Robinhood’s third-quarter results, due after the market close on October 27. Next, watch whether Coinbase adds more event contract categories. Finally, track whether Coinbase Prediction Market Revenue 2026 results match the Bernstein forecast. (Source: Casino.org)
