Prediction market lobbying 2026 spending is on pace to set a new yearly record. Kalshi alone spent $990,000 on direct lobbying during the first half of the year. That figure already sits just below its full-year 2025 total. Meanwhile, traditional casino and gaming groups are ramping up their own spending to fight back.
Prediction Market Lobbying 2026: Two Industries Battle Over Congress
Kalshi and rival platform Polymarket have poured money into Washington as they push to keep sports-linked contracts classified as financial products rather than gambling. This distinction matters enormously. Financial products fall under federal commodities oversight, while gambling falls under state law and licensing. Consequently, prediction market operators want federal rules to override the state gambling laws that keep restricting them.
The American Gaming Association and allied casino groups are spending heavily in response. They argue prediction markets offer sports wagering without the licensing fees, taxes, and consumer protections that regulated sportsbooks must follow. Therefore, both sides now see this fight as existential rather than a minor regulatory dispute. Neither side appears willing to pull back spending anytime soon.
Lobbying totals like these rarely move quickly through Congress on their own. However, sustained spending over multiple election cycles has historically shifted how committees approach gray-area industries. Casino trade groups know this pattern well from decades of their own regulatory fights, which is why they are treating prediction markets as a long-term threat rather than a passing news cycle.
Why It Matters For Players
This lobbying battle will likely decide whether prediction markets keep operating nationwide or face state-by-state shutdowns. Washington, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, and New York have already sued to restrict platforms like Kalshi. However, the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pushed back against some of those state actions. As a result, the legal landscape keeps shifting under players’ feet from month to month.
Players who use prediction markets for sports outcomes should expect continued instability until Congress or the courts settle the underlying question. Meanwhile, licensed sportsbooks benefit from lobbying spend that protects their existing tax and licensing structure. That stability is exactly what gives regulated casinos and sportsbooks an edge over newer, less-certain platforms.
Casino Bonus Streak Perspective
Regulatory uncertainty is a good reason to stick with clearly licensed platforms. Our guide to the best casino bonuses only features operators with established, stable licensing. We also track fast payout casinos that will not face a sudden shutdown order mid-withdrawal, unlike some prediction-market platforms currently fighting state regulators.
What Players Should Watch Next
Congress has not yet advanced major legislation on prediction markets despite growing lobbying spend on both sides. Prediction market lobbying 2026 totals will likely keep climbing through the rest of the year as court rulings pile up. Players should watch for federal action, since a single new law could resolve the state-by-state legal chaos overnight. (Source: CNBC)
